Recent Publications

Includes work by SACEMA Researchers, Students, Postdoctoral Fellows, Research Associates and Fellows from 2007 to 2023


Vale G, Hargrove JW, Torr SJ (2022) Identification of the area sampled by traps: a modelling study with tsetse doi.org/10.1101/2022.10.24.513453 Preprint


Niyukuri D, Nyandwi J, Kamatari O, Uwizeyimana C, Mikaza C, Barengayabo M (2022) A leap to non-communicable diseases epidemic in Burundi: overall trends of the disproportionate burden doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.18.22280066 Preprint


Kassanjee R, Welte A, Otwombe KN, Jaffer M, Milovanic M, Hlongwane KE, Puren A, Hill N, Mbowane V, Dunkle K, Gray G, Abdullah F, Jewkes R, Coetzee J (2022) HIV incidence estimation among female sex workers in South Africa: a multiple methods analysis of cross-sectional survey data doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(22)00201-6 Lancet HIV


Bolton L, Bekker A, Govender NP, van Schalkwyk C, Whitelaw A, Dramowski A (2022) Neonatal sepsis: challenges in data access, harmonization and analysis to inform empiric antibiotic recommendations in South African neonatal units DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34471.42407 Preprint


Meyer-Rath G, Hounsell RA, Pulliam JRC, Jamieson L, Nichols BE, Moultrie H, Silal SP (2022) The Role of Modelling and Analytics in South African COVID-19 Planning and Budgeting doi.org/10.1101/2022.08.23.22279123 Preprint


Grebe E, Yu AE, Bravo MD, Welte A, Bruhn RL, Stone M, Green V, Williamson P, Feldstein LR, Jones JM, Busch MP, Custer B, (2022) COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States prior to the Delta and Omicron-associated surges: a retrospective cohort study of repeat blood donors doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiac318 The Journal of Infectious Diseases


Sempa J, Grebe E, Welte A (2022) Quantitative interpretation of Sedia LAg Assay test results after HIV diagnosis doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271763 PLOS One


Niyukuri D, Sinzinkayo D, Troth EV, Oduma CO, Barengayabo M, Ndereyimana M, Holzschuh, Vera-Arias C, Gebre Y, Badu K, Nyandwi J, Baza D, Juma E, Köpfli C (2022) Performance of highly sensitive and conventional rapid diagnostic tests for clinical and subclinical Plasmodium falciparum infections, and hrp2/3 deletion status in Burundi doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000828 PLOS Global Public Health


Bingham J, Tempia S, Moultrie H, Viboud C, Jassat W, Cohen C, Pulliam JRC (2022) Estimating the time-varying reproduction number for COVID-19 in South Africa during the first four waves using multiple measures of incidence for public and private sectors across four waves doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.22.22277932


Hargrove JW, Vale G (2022) Stalled malaria control; root causes and possible remedies doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.09.22277454 Preprint


Ousman K, Thumath M, Kckay G, Niyukuri D, Ombeni M, Kabego L, Banzua B, Mangala S, Tatabod R, Mirindi P, Talisuna A, Houndjo B, Baller A, Keïta M (2022) Evaluation of a health systems strengthening intervention to improve Ebola Virus Disease infection prevention and control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo doi.org/10.29392/001c.36558 Journal of Global Health Reports


Hope A, Mugenyi A, Esterhuizen J, Tirados I, Cunningham L, Garrod G, Lehane MJ, Longbottom J, Mangwiro TNC, Opiyo M, Stanton M, Torr SJ, Vale GA, Waiswa C, Selby R (2022) Scaling up of tsetse control to eliminate Gambian sleeping sickness in northern Uganda doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010222 PLoS Neglected Tropical Disease


Pontali E, Silva DR, Marx, FM, Caminero JA, Centis R, Muhwa JC, Tiberi S, Migliori GB, (2022) Breathing back better! A state of the art on the benefits of functional evaluation and rehabilitation of post-tuberculosis and post-COVID lungs doi.org/10.1016/j.arbres.2022.05.010 Archivos de Bronconeumología


Seelal S, Groome M, Govender N, Pulliam JRC, Ramadan PC, Jassat W, Leonard E, Moultrie H, Meyer-Rath KG, Ramkrishna W, Langa T, Furumele T, Moonasar D, Cohen C, Walaza S (2022) Leveraging epidemiology as a decision support tool during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa doi.org/10.7196/SAMJ.2022.v112i5b.16061 The South African Medical Journal


Azam JM, Pang X, Are EA, Pulliam JRC, Ferrari MJ (2022) Models and modelling practices for assessing the impact of outbreak response interventions to human vaccine-preventable diseases (1970-2019) - A systematic review doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.27.22275642 Medrxiv Preprint


Bingham J, Cable R, Coleman C, Glatt TN, Grebe E, Mhlanga, Nyano C, Pieterson N, Swanevelder R, Swarts A, Sykes W, van den Berg K, Vermeulen M, Welte A (2022) Estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in South Africa in March 2022 doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1687679/v2 Preprint


Niyukuri D, Sinzinkayo D, Troth E, Oduma C, Barengayabo M, Ndereyimana M, Holzschuh A, Vera-Arias CA, Gebre Y, Badu K, Nyandwi J, Baza D, Juma E, Koepfli C (2022) High sensitivity of a novel rapid test for the diagnosis of clinical and subclinical Plasmodium falciparum infections in a high transmission setting in Burundi doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.26.22274317 Preprint


Grebe E, Yu EA, MD Bravo, Welte A, Bruhn RL, Stone M, Green V, Williamson PC, Feldstein LR, Jones JM, Busch MP, Custer B (2022) COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States prior to the Delta and Omicron-associated surges: a retrospective cohort study of repeat blood donors doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1551694/v1 Reprint


Lukwa AT, Siya A, Odunitan-Wayas FA, Alaba O (2022) Decomposing maternal socioeconomic inequalities in Zimbabwe; leaving no woman behind MC Pregnancy & Childbirth doi.org/10.1186/s12884-022-04571-9


Pulliam JRC, van Schalkwyk C, Govender N, von Gottberg A, Cohen C, Groome MJ, Dushoff J, Mlisana K, Moultrie H (2022) Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa Science doi.org/10.1126/science.abn4947


Lukwa AT, Odunitan-Wayas F, Lambert EV, Alaba OA, and on behalf of the “Savings for Health” IDRC Collaborators (2022) Can Informal Savings Groups Promote Food Security and Social, Economic and Health Transformations, Especially among Women in Urban Sub-Saharan Africa: A Narrative Systematic Review Sustainability doi.org/10.3390/su14063153


Cable R, Coleman C, Glatt T, Grebe E, Mhlanga L, Nyano C, Pieterson N, Swanevelder R, Swarts A, Sykes W, van den Berg K, Vermeulen M, Welte A (2022) Estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in eight provinces of South Africa in November 2021 doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1359658/v1


Moore DP, Hesseling AC, Marx FM (2022) Prolonged-course tuberculosis treatment or secondary prevention for those at high risk of recurrence? Clinical Microbiology and Infection doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2022.01.013


Perofsky AC, Tempia S, Bingham J, Maslo C, Toubkin M, Laubscher A, Walaza S, Pulliam JRC, Viboud C, Cohen C (2022) The direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on private healthcare utilization in South Africa, March 2020 – September 2021 Clinical Infectious Diseases doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciac055


Marx FM; Meehan S-A; Jivan D; Dunbar R; Hoddinott G; Hesseling AC; Osman M; (2022) Use of interactive messaging to reduce pre-diagnosis loss to follow-up for TB care The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.21.0332


de Villiers AK; Dye D; Yaesoubi R; Cohen T; Marx FM (2022) Spatially targeted digital chest radiography to reduce tuberculosis in high-burden settings: A study of adaptive decision making Epidemics doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100540


Pearson CAB, Silal S, Li MWZ, Dushoff J, Bolker BM, Abbott S, van Schalkwyk C, Davies, NG, Barnard RC, Edmunds WJ, Bingham JL, Meyer-Rath G, Glass A, Wolter N, Govender N, Stevens W, Scott L, Mlisana K, Moultrie H, Pulliam JRC, (2021) Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.19.21268038


Sbarra AN, Rolfe S, Nguyen JQ, Earl L, Galles N, et al. (2021) Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries Nature doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03043-4


NA Makoah, T Tipih, MM Litabe, M Brink, JB Sempa, D Goedhals, FJ Burt (2021) A systematic review and meta-analysis of the sensitivity of antibody tests for the laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 Future Virology doi.org/10.2217/fvl-2021-0211


Bolton L, van den Berg K, Swanevelder R, Pulliam JCR (2021) Characterising differences in red blood cell usage patterns between healthcare sectors in South Africa: 2014-2019 Blood Transfusion doi.org/10.2450/2021.0209-21


Marx FM, Hauer B, Menzies NA, Haas W, Perumal N (2021) Targeting screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection towards asylum seekers from high-incidence countries – a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis BMC Public Health doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-12142-4


Sempa J, Grebe E, Welte A (2021) Quantitative interpretation of Sedia LAg Assay test results after HIV diagnosis doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.13.21263495


Pulliam JCR, van Schalkwyk C, Govender N, von Gottberg A, Cohen C, Groom M, Dushoff J, Mlisana K, Moultrie H (2021) SARS-CoV-2 reinfection trends in South Africa: analysis of routine surveillance data doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068


McClinton Appollis TMA, Jonas K, Beauclair RN, Lombard CJ, Duby Z, Cheyip M, Maruping K, Dietrich J, Mathews C (2021) Early Sexual Debut and the Effects on Well-Being among South African Adolescent Girls and Young Women Aged 15 to 24 Years International Journal of Sexual Health doi.org/10.1080/19317611.2021.1979162


Niyukuri D, Chibawara T, Nyasulu PS, Delva W (2021) Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources Mathematics doi.org/10.3390/ math9212645


Kinyoki D, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Bhattacharjee NV, Kassebaum NJ, Hay SI, et al (2021) Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018 Nature Medicine doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01498-0


Mhlanga L, Grebe E, Welte A (2021) Smoothing age/time structure of HIV prevalence, for optimal use in synthetic cohort based incidence estimation doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-959136/v1


Bolton L, van den Berg K, Swanevelder R, Pulliam JCR (2021) Mind the gap: Patterns of red blood cell product usage in South Africa, 2014 - 2019 The South African Medical Journal doi.org/10.7196/SAMJ.2021.v111i10.15658


Pearson CAB, Bozzani F, Procter SR, Davies NG, HudaI M, Jensen HT, Keogh-Brown M, Khalid M, Sweeney S, Torres-Rueda S, CHiL COVID-19 Working Group, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Eggo RM, Vassall A, Jit M (2021) COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness PLOS Medicine doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003815


Migliori GB, Marx FM, Ambrosino N, Zampogna E, Schaaf HS, van der Zalm MM, Allwood B, Byrne AL, Mortimer K, Wallis RS, Fox GJ, Leung CC, Chakaya JM, Seaworth B, Rachow A, Marais BJ, Furin J, Akkerman OW, Al Yaquobi F, Amaral AFS, Borisov S, Caminero JA, Carvalho ACC, Chesov, D, Codecasa LR, Teixeira RC, Dalcolmo MP, Datta S, Dinh-Xuan AT, Duarte R, Evans CA, García-García JM, Günther G, Hoddinott G, Huddart S, Ivanova O, Laniado-Laborín R, Manga S, Manika K, Mariandyshev A, Mello FCQ, Mpagama SG, Muñoz-Torrico M, Nahid P, Ong CWM, Palmero DJ, Piubello A, Pontali E, Silva DR, Singla R, Spanevello A, Tiberi S, Udwadia ZF, Vitacca M, Centis R, D´Ambrosio L, Sotgiu G, Lange C, Visca, D. (2021) Clinical standards for the assessment, management and rehabilitation of post-TB lung disease International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.21.0425


van Niekerk DD, Oosthuizen MM, du Toit F, Snoep JL (2021) Estimating merozoite release number and reinvasion efficiency in Plasmodium falciparum cell culture Transactions of the Royal Society of South Africa doi.org/10.1080/0035919X.2021.1966550


Granich R, Gupta S, Williams B (2021) Human immunodeficiency virus funding and access to treatment in sub-Saharan Africa International Journal of STD & AIDS doi/10.1177/09564624211042287


Azam JM, Saitta B, Bonner K, Ferrari MJ, Pulliam JCR (2021) Modelling the relative benefits of using the measles vaccine outside cold chain for outbreak response Vaccine doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.08.053


Hendrickx DM, Delva W, Hens N (2021) Influence of sexual risk behaviour and STI co-infection dynamics on the evolution of HIV set point viral load in MSM Epidemics doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100474


Stone M, Grebe E, Sulaeman H, Germanio CD, Dave H, Kelly K, Biggerstaff B, Crews BO, Tran N, Jerome KR, Deny TN, Hogema B, Jones JM, Thornburg N, Simmons G2, Krajden M, Kleinman S, Dumont LJ, Busch MP (2021) Evaluation of commercially available high-throughput SARS-CoV-1 2 serological assays for serosurveillance and related applications doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.04.21262414


Delva W, Dominic EM, Beauclair R, Ouifki R, Kroon M, Volmink H, Dorkin E (2021) Four-week forecasts of COVID-19 epidemic trajectories in South Africa, Chile, Peru and Brazil: a model evaluation doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.06.21263151


Paulson KR, Kamath AM, Alam T, Bienhoff K, Abady GG, Abbas J, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Adetokunboh O et al (2021) Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 The Lancet doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01207-1


Various authors (2021) Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 The Lancet doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30750-9


Facente SN, Agyei L, Maher AD, Mahy M, Dalal S, Lowrance D, Grebe E, Marsh K (2021) Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Non-Incidence Surveillance Use Cases: A systematic review doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.23.21262504


Adetokunboh OO, JulianaIwu-Jaja CC, Nnaji CA, Ndwandwe D (2021) Missed opportunities for vaccination in Africa Current Opinion in Immunology doi.org/10.1016/j.coi.2021.05.002


Galles N, Liu PY, Updike RL, Fullman N, Nguyen J, Rolfe S, et al (2021) Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1 The Lancet doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00984-3


Hargrove JW, Vale GA (2021) Negative density-dependent dispersal in tsetse (Glossina spp): red flag or red herring? Medical and Veterinary Entomology doi.org/10.1111/mve.12466


Osman M, C van Schalkwyk, P, Naidoo, et al (2021) Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register Scientific Reports doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95331-w


Are EB, Hargrove JW, Dushoff J (2021) Does Counting Different Life Stages Impact Estimates for Extinction Probabilities for Tsetse (Glossina spp)? Bulletin of Mathematical Biology doi.org/10.1007/s11538-021-00924-1


Milovanovic M, Jewkes R, Otwombe K, Jaffera M, Hopkins K, Hlongwe K, Mathaludi M, Mbowanea V, Graya H, Dunkle K, Huntg G, Welteh A, Kassanjeeh R, Slingersj N, Vanleeuwj L, Pureng A, Kinghorna A, Martinsona N, Abdullahj F, Coetzeea J (2021) Community-led cross-sectional study of social and employment circumstances, HIV and associated factors amongst female sex workers in South Africa: study protocol Global Health Action doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2021.1953243


Cromwell EA, Osborne JCP, Unnasch TR, Basáñez M, Gass KM, Barbre KA, Hill E, et al. (2021) Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824


Horn S, Snoep JL, van Niekerk DD (2021) Uncovering the effects of heterogeneity and parameter sensitivity on within-host dynamics of disease: malaria as a case study BMC Bioinformatics doi.org/10.1186/s12859-021-04289-z


Hendrickx DM, Sousa JD, Libin PJK, Delva W, Liesenborgs J, Hens N, Müller V, Vandamme A (2021) Comparison of two simulators for individual based models in HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV 2 in Yaoundé (Cameroon) Scientific Reports doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94289-z


Mhlanga L, Vermeulen M, Grebe E, Welte A (2021) SARS CoV 2 Infection Fatality Rate Estimates for South Africa doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-707813/v2


Nichols JD, Bogich TL, Howerton E, Bjørnstad ON, Borchering RK, Ferrari M, Haran M, Jewell C, Pepin KM, Probert WJM, Pulliam JRC, Runge MC, Tildesley M, Viboud C, Shea K (2021) Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making PLOS Biology doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307


van Schalkwyk C, Moodley J, Welte A, Johnson LF (2021) Modelling the impact of prevention strategies on cervical cancer incidence in South Africa International Journal of Cancer doi.org/10.1002/ijc.33716


Kent BA, Holman C, Amoako E, Antonietti A, Azam JM, Ballhausen H, Bediako Y, Belasen AM, Carneiro CFD, Chen Y, Compeer EB, Connor CAC, Crüwell S, Debat H, Dorris E, Ebrahimi H, Erlich JC, Fernández-Chiappe F, Fischer F, Gazda MA, Glatz T, Grabitz P, Heise V, Kent DG, Lo H, McDowell G, Mehta D, Neumann WJ, Neves K, Patterson M, Penfold NC, Piper SK, Puebla I, Quashie PK, Carolina, Quezada CP, Riley JL, Rohmann JL, Saladi S, Schwessinger B, Siegerink B, Stehlik P, Tzilivaki A, Umbers KDL, Varma A, Walavalkar K, de Winde CM, Zaza C, Weissgerber T (2021) Empowering Early Career Researchers to Improve Science doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/p5evw


Pearson CAB, Pulliam JCR, Eggo RM (2021) Pre-vaccination testing could expand coverage of two-dose COVID vaccines Wellcome Open Research doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16835.1


Atuhaire L, Adetokunboh O, Shumba C, Nyasulu PS (2021) Effect of community-based interventions targeting female sex workers along the HIV care cascade in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis Systematic Reviews doi.org/10.1186/s13643-021-01688-4


Adetokunboh, O.O, Z.E. Mthombothi, E.M. Dominic, S. Djomba-Njankou, J.R.C. Pulliam (2021) African based researchers’ output on models for the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions: A scoping review PLOS One doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250086


South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (2021) COVID-19 modelling update: Considerations for the third wave, including the impact of the Delta variant of concern n/a


Mathews C, Cheyip M, Beauclair R, Puren A, Lombard C, Jonas K, Ayalew KA, D Govindasamy, Kuo C, Dietrich J, Abdullah F, Gray G (2021) HIV care coverage among HIV-positive adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: Results from the HERStory Study South African Medical Journal doi:10.7196/SAMJ.2021.v111i5.15351


Binati RL, Du Toit M, Snoep JL, Salvetti E, Torriani S (2021) Transcriptional and Metabolic Response of Wine-Related Lactiplantibacillus plantarum to Different Conditions of Aeration and Nitrogen Availability Fermentation doi.org/10.3390/fermentation7020068


Hargrove JW, Van Sickle J, Vale GA, Lucas ER (2021) Negative density-dependent dispersal in tsetse (Glossina spp): An artefact of inappropriate analysis PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009026


Niyukuri D, Nyasulu P, Delva W (2021) Assessing the uncertainty around age-mixing patterns in HIV transmission inferred from phylogenetic trees PLOS One doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249013


van Schalkwyk C, Dorrington RE, Seatlhodi T, Velasquez C, Feizzadeh A, Johnson LF (2021) Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts Scientific Reports doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85154-0


Youngji J, Jamieson L, Edoka I, Long L , S Sheetal Silal, Pulliam J.C.R, Moultrie H, Sanne I, Meyer-Rath G, Nichols BE (2021) Cost-effectiveness of Remdesivir and Dexamethasone for COVID-19 Treatment in South Africa Open Forum Infectious Diseases doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofab040


Sykes W, Mhlanga L, Swanevelder R, Glatt TN, Grebe E, Coleman C, Pieterson N, Cable R, Welte A, van den Berg K, Vermeulen M (2021) Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, and Free State provinces of South Africa in January 2021 doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-233375/v1. Preprint


Mojica-Benavidesa M , van Niekerk DD , Mijalkovc M , Snoep JL, Mehliga B, Volpea G , Mattias G, CB Adiels (2021) Intercellular communication induces glycolytic synchronization waves between individually oscillating cells Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2010075118


Are EB, Colijn C (2021) Projected spread of COVID-19's second wave in South Africa 2 under different levels of lockdown doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.22.21250308


Motaze NV, Mthombothi ZE, Adetokunboh O, Hazelbag CM, Saldarriaga EM, Mbuagbaw L, Wiysonge CS (2021) The Impact of Rubella Vaccine Introduction on Rubella Infection and Congenital Rubella Syndrome: A Systematic Review of Mathematical Modelling Studies Vaccines doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9020084


Vanden Driessche K, Mahlobo PZ, Venter R, Caldwell J, Jennings K, Diacon AH, Cotton MF, de Groot R, Hens N, Marx FM, Warren RM, Mishra H, Theron G (2021) Face masks in the post-COVID-19 era: a silver lining for the damaged tuberculosis public health response? Lancet Respiratory Medicine doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00020-5


Cork MA, Henry NJ, Watson S, Croneberger AJ, Baumann M, Letourneau ID, et al (2021) Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems BMC Medicine doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01876-4


Ross JM, Badje A, Rangaka MX, Walker AS, Shapiro AE, Thomas KK, Anglaret X, Eholie S, Gabillard D, Boulle A, Maartens G, Wilkinson RJ, Ford N, Golub JE, Williams BG, Barnabas RV (2021) Isoniazid preventive therapy plus antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data Lancet HIV doi: 10.1016/s2352-3018(20)30299-x


Czachu MV, Todd M, Loureiro GT, Azam JM, Nyeleka S, Alblas A, Davies SJ (2021) Opening the floor for discussion: A perspective on how scholars perceive attitudes to science in policymaking in South Africa South African Journal of Science doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2021/7948


Dye, C., R.C.H. Cheng, J.S Dagpunar, & B.G. Williams (2020) The scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics across Europe. Royal Society Open Science 7(11) doi: 10.1098/rsos.201726


Awine, T., & S.P. Silal (2020) Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana: a population level mathematical modelling approach. BMC Malaria Journal 19(423) doi: 10.1186/s12936-020-03496-y


Oluwagbemi, O. O., F. E. Oluwagbemi, A. Jatto, & C. Hui (2020) MAVSCOT: A fuzzy logic-based HIV diagnostic system with indigenous multi-lingual interfaces for rural Africa. PLOS ONE 15(11): e0241864 doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241864


Cheng R, Dye C, Dagpunar J, Williams B (2020) Modelling Pre-Symptomatic Infectiousness in COVID-19 doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.01.20224014


Deshpande, A., M.K. Miller-Petrie, P.A. Lindstedt, M.M. Baumann, K.B. Johnson, B.F. Blacker, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, A. Abdelalim, I. Abdollahpour, K.H. Abegaz, O. Adetokunboh et al. (2020) Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17. The Lancet Global Health 8(9):e1162-1185. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30278-3


Murray, C.J., A.Y. Aravkin, P. Zheng, C. Abbafati, K.M Abbas, M. Abbasi-Kangevari, F Abd-Allah, A. Abdelalim, M. Abdollahi, I. Abdollahpour , K.H Abegaz, O.O Adetokunboh, & et al. (2020) Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 396(10258):1223-1249. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2


Wang, H., K.M. Abbas, M. Abbasifard, M. Abbasi-Kangevari, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah , A. Abdelalim, H. Abolhassani, L.G Abreu, M.R Abrigo, A.L Abushouk, & O. Adetokunboh O et al. (2020) Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet 396(10258):1160-1203 doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30977-6


Vos, T., S.S. Lim, C. Abbafati, K.M. Abbas, M. Abbasi, M. Abbasifard , M. Abbasi-Kangevari, H. Abbastabar, F. Abd-Allah, A. Abdelalim, M. Abdollahi, O. Adetokunboh & et al. (2020) Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet 396(10258):1204-1222. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9


Murray, C.J., C. Abbafati, K.M. Abbas, M. Abbasi, M. Abbasi-Kangevari, F. Abd-Allah , M. Abdollahi, P. Abedi, A. Abedi, H. Abolhassani, V. Aboyans, O. Adetokunboh, & et al. (2020) Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet 396(10258):1135-1159 doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31404-5


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Vale G. A, Hall D. R, Chamisa A, Torr S. J. (2012) Towards an early warning system for Rhodesian sleeping sickness in savannah areas: man-like traps for tsetse flies. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 6(12). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001978.


Kama A. Wlodzimirow, Saeid Eslami, Robert A. F. M. Chamuleau, Martin Nieuwoudt, and Ameen Abu-Hanna. (2012) Prediction of Poor Outcome in Patients with Acute Liver Failure?Systematic Review of Prediction Models. Plos One 7(12). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0050952.


Hargrove J, Eastwood H, Mahiane G, van Schalkwyk C. (2012) How should we best estimate the mean recency duration for the BED method? PLoS One 7(11). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049661.


Kassanjee R., T. A. McWalter, T. Bärnighausen & A. Welte (2012) A New General Biomarker-Based Incidence Estimator. Epidemiology. 23(5): doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3182576c07.


Guy Severin Mahiane , Rachid Ouifki, Hilmarie Brand, Wim Delva, Alex Welte. (2012) A General HIV Incidence Inference Scheme Based on Likelihood of Individual Level Data and a Population Renewal Equation. PLoS One. 7(9): e44377. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0044377.


Rustomjee R, Mcleod R, Hanekom W, Steel G, Mahomed H, Hawkridge A, Welte A, Sinanovic E, Loots G, Grobler A, Mvusi L, Gray G, Hesseling A, Ginsberg A, Lienhardt C, Shea J, Tong X, Lockhart S, Churchyard G. J. (2012) Key issues in the clinical development and implementation of TB vaccines in South Africa. Tuberculosis 92(5). doi: 10.1016/j.tube.2012.05.001.


Torr S. J, Chamisa A, Mangwiro T. N, Vale G. A. (2012) Where, when and why do tsetse contact humans? Answers from studies in a national park of Zimbabwe. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 6(8). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001791.


Kristien Michielsen , Roxanne Beauclair, Wim Delva, Kristien Roelens, Ronan Van Rossem and Marleen Temmerman. (2012) Effectiveness of a peer-led HIV prevention intervention in secondary schools in Rwanda: results from a non-randomized controlled trial. BMC Public Health 12. DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-12-729.


Gerritsen A. A, Mitchell J. S, Johnson S. M, Delva W. (2012) Challenges with using estimates when calculating ART need among adults in South Africa. South African Medical Journal 102(10). doi: 10.7196/samj.5946.


Hargrove J. W. (2012) Age-specific changes in sperm levels among female tsetse (Glossina spp.) with a model for the time course of insemination. Physiological Entomology 37(3). DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3032.2012.00845.x.


HIV Modelling Consortium Treatment as Prevention Editorial Writing Group. (2012) HIV treatment as prevention: models, data, and questions--towards evidence-based decision-making. PLoS Medicine 9(7). doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001259.


Eaton J. W, Johnson L. F, Salomon J. A, B?rnighausen T, Bendavid E, Bershteyn A, Bloom D. E, Cambiano V, Fraser C, Hontelez J. A, Humair S, Klein D. J, Long E. F, Phillips A. N, Pretorius C, Stover J, Wenger E. A, Williams B. G, Hallett T. B. (2012) HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa. PLoS Medicine 9(7) doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245.


Delva W, Wilson D. P, Abu-Raddad L, Gorgens M, Wilson D, Hallett T. B, Welte A. (2012) HIV treatment as prevention: principles of good HIV epidemiology modelling for public health decision-making in all modes of prevention and evaluation. PLoS Medicin 9(7). doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001239.


Delva W, Eaton J. W, Meng F, Fraser C, White R. G, Vickerman P, Boily M. C, Hallett T. B. (2012) HIV treatment as prevention: optimising the impact of expanded HIV treatment programmes. PLoS Medicine 9(7). doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001258.


Myron S. Cohen, Christopher Dye, Christophe Fraser, William C. Miller, Kimberly A. Powers, and Brian G. Williams. (2012) HIV Treatment as Prevention: Debate and Commentary?Will Early Infection Compromise Treatment-as-Prevention Strategies? PLoS Medicine 9(7). doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001232.


Wood R, Racow K, Bekker L. G, Morrow C, Middelkoop K, Mark D, Lawn S. D. (2012) Indoor social networks in a South African township: potential contribution of location to tuberculosis transmission. PLoS One 7(6). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0039246.


Korenromp E. L, Glaziou P, Fitzpatrick C, Floyd K, Hosseini M, Raviglione M, Atun R, Williams B. (2012) Implementing the global plan to stop TB, 2011-2015--optimizing allocations and the Global Fund's contribution: a scenario projections study. PLoS One 7(6). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0038816.


Wlodzimirow K. A, Eslami S, Abu-Hanna A, Nieuwoudt M, Chamuleau R. A. (2012) Systematic review: acute liver failure - one disease, more than 40 definitions. Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics 35(11). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2036.2012.05097.x.


Usha K. Sharma, Marco Schito, Alex Welte, Christine Rousseau, Joseph Fitzgibbon, Brandon Keele, Stuart Shapiro, Andrew McMichael, and David N. Burns (2012) Workshop Summary: Novel Biomarkers for HIV Incidence Assay Development Aids Research And Human Retroviruses 28(6). doi: 10.1089/aid.2011.0332.


Lindh J. M, Goswami P, Blackburn R. S, Arnold S. E, Vale G. A, Lehane M. J, Torr S. J. (2012) Optimizing the colour and fabric of targets for the control of the tsetse fly Glossina fuscipes fuscipes. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 6(5). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001661.


Williams B. G. (2012) TB and HIV: deadly liaison or manageable threat? Science Translation Medicine 4(135). doi: 10.1126/scitranslmed.3004079.


Hargrove J. W, Ouifki R, Kajunguri D, Vale G. A, Torr S. J. (2012) Modeling the control of trypanosomiasis using trypanocides or insecticide-treated livestock. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 6(5). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001615.


Wlodzimirow K, Eslami S, Abu-Hanna A, Nieuwoudt M, Chamuleau R.A.F.M. (2012) Acute Liver Failure - What Is It? Hepatology 55( 4). DOI: 10.1002/hep.25519.


Bellan S. E, Pulliam J. R, Scott J. C, Dushoff J, MMED Organizing Committee. (2012) How to make epidemiological training infectious. Plos Biology 10(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001295.


Cari van Schalkwyk, Madeleine Cule, Alex Welte, Paul van Helden, Gian van der Spuy, and Pieter Uys. (2012) Towards Eliminating Bias in Cluster Analysis of TB Genotyped Data. PLoS One 7(3). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0034109.


Kranzer K, Govindasamy D, van Schaik N, Thebus E, Davies N, Zimmermann M, Jeneker S, Lawn S, Wood R, Bekker L. G. (2012) Incentivized recruitment of a population sample to a mobile HIV testing service increases the yield of newly diagnosed cases, including those in need of antiretroviral therapy. HIV Medicine. 13(2). doi: 10.1111/j.1468-1293.2011.00947.x.


Beauclair R, Kassanjee R, Temmerman M, Welte A, Delva W. (2012) Age-disparate relationships and implications for STI transmission among young adults in Cape Town, South Africa. The European Journal Of Contraception and Reproductive Health Care 17(1). doi: 10.3109/13625187.2011.644841.


Granich R, Kahn J. G, Bennett R, Holmes C. B, Garg N, Serenata C, Sabin M. L, Makhlouf-Obermeyer C, De Filippo Mack C, Williams P, Jones L, Smyth C, Kutch K. A, Ying-Ru L, Vitoria M, Souteyrand Y, Crowley S, Korenromp EL, Williams B. G. (2012) Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050. PLoS One 7(2). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030216.


Venkatesh K. K, de Bruyn G, Lurie M. N, Modisenyane T, Triche E. W, Gray G. E, Welte A, Martinson N. A. (2012) Sexual risk behaviors among HIV-infected South African men and women with their partners in a primary care program: implications for couples-based prevention. AIDS Behavior. 2012 Jan;16(1):139-50. doi: 10.1007/s10461-011-9941-y.


Asha Saidi Kalula, Farai Nyabadza (2012) A theoretical model for substance abuse in the presence of treatment. South African Journal Of Science 108(3-4). Doi.Org/10.4102/Sajs.V108i3/4.654.


Hargrove J., C. van Schalkwyk & H. Eastwood (2012) BED Estimates of HIV Incidence: Resolving the Differences, Making Things Simpler. PLoS One. 7(1): e29736. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0029736.


Hargrove J. W, Ouifki R, Ameh JE. (2011) A general model for mortality in adult tsetse (Glossina spp.). Medical And Veterinary Entomology 25(4). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2011.00953.x.


Wim Delva, Marlise Richter, Petra De Koker, Matthew Chersich, and Marleen Temmerman. (2011) Sex Work during the 2010 FIFA World Cup: Results from a Three-Wave Cross-Sectional Survey. PLoS One 6(12). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0028363.


Brian G Williams, Reuben Granich, Christopher Dye. (2011) Role of acute infection in HIV transmission. Lancet 378(9807). Doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61832-1.


Johnstone-Robertson S, Lawn S. D, Welte A, Bekker L. G, Wood R. (2011) Tuberculosis in a South African prison - a transmission modelling analysis. South African Medical Journal 101(11). PMID: 22272961.


Williams B. G, Abdool Karim S. S, Karim Q. A, Gouws E. (2011) Epidemiological impact of tenofovir gel on the HIV epidemic in South Africa. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 58(2). doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3182253c19.


Williams B. G, Lima V, Gouws E. (2011) Modelling the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the epidemic of HIV. Current HIV Research 9(6). PMID: 21999772.


Kahn J. G, Marseille E. A, Bennett R, Williams B. G, Granich R. (2011) Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for prevention. Current HIV Research 9(6). PMID: 21999776


Jones L, Akugizibwe P, Clayton M, Amon J. J, Sabin M. L, Bennett R, Stegling C, Baggaley R, Kahn J. G, Holmes C. B, Garg N, Obermeyer C. M, Mack C. D, Williams P, Smyth C, Vitoria M, Crowley S, Williams B, McClure C, Granich R, Hirnschall G. (2011) Costing human rights and community support interventions as a part of universal access to HIV treatment and care in a Southern African setting. Current HIV Research 9(6). PMID: 21999777.


Granich R, Lo Y. R, Suthar A. B, Vitoria M, Baggaley R, Obermeyer C. M, McClure C, Souteyrand Y, Perriens J, Kahn J. G, Bennett R, Smyth C, Williams B, Montaner J, Hirnschall G. (2011) Harnessing the prevention benefits of antiretroviral therapy to address HIV and tuberculosis. Current HIV Research 9(6). PMID: 21999771.


Granich R, Gupta S, Suthar A. B, Smyth C, Hoos D, Vitoria M, Simao M, Hankins C, Schwartlander B, Ridzon R, Bazin B, Williams B, Lo Y. R, McClure C, Montaner J, Hirnschall G; ART in Prevention of HIV and TB Research Writing Group. (2011) Antiretroviral therapy in prevention of HIV and TB: update on current research efforts. Current HIV Res 9(6). PMID: 21999779.


Auvert B, Mahiane G. S, Lissouba P, Moreau T. (2011) Statistical power and estimation of incidence rate ratios obtained from BED incidence testing for evaluating HIV interventions among young people. PLoS One 6(8). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0021149.


Okosun K. O, Ouifki R, Marcus N. (2011) Optimal control analysis of a malaria disease transmission model that includes treatment and vaccination with waning immunity. Biosystems 106(2-3). doi: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2011.07.006.


Wim Delva, Roxanne Beauclair, Alex Welte, Stijn Vansteelandt, Niel Hens, Marc Aerts, Elizabeth du Toit, Nulda Beyers and Marleen Temmerman. (2011) Age-disparity, sexual connectedness and HIV infection in disadvantaged communities around Cape Town, South Africa: a study protocol. BMC Public Health 11. DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-616.


Delva W, Verguet S, Hargrove J, Williams B, Sheneberger R, Stander T, Welte A. (2011) Treatment-centred prevention: an integrated biomedical and social approach to HIV prevention. AIDS 25(11). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283488503.


Williams B. G, Wood R, Dukay V, Delva W, Ginsburg D, Hargrove J, Stander M, Sheneberger R, Montaner J, Welte A. (2011) Treatment as prevention: preparing the way. Journal of the International Aids Society 14(1). doi: 10.1186/1758-2652-14-S1-S6.


Dye C, Bourdin Trunz B, L?nnroth K, Roglic G, Williams B. G. (2011) Nutrition, diabetes and tuberculosis in the epidemiological transition. PLoS One 6(6). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0021161.


Alex Welte, John Hargrove, Wim Delva, Brian Williams, Tienie Stander (2011) How different are the costs and consequences of delayed versus immediate HIV treatment? South African Medical Journal 101(6).


Wallengren K, Williams B. G. (2011) The Incidence and Distribution of Multidrug- And Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis In Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. Clinical Trials 17.


Uys P, Marais B. J, Johnstone-Robertson S, Hargrove J, Wood R. (2011) Transmission elasticity in communities hyperendemic for tuberculosis. Clinical Infectious Diseases 52(12). doi: 10.1093/cid/cir229.


John W. Hargrove, Jean H. Humphrey, Agnes Mahomva, Brian G. Williams, Henry Chidawanyika, Kuda Mutasa, Edmore Marinda, Michael T. Mbizvo, Kusum J. Nathoo, Peter J. Iliff, Owen Mugurungib, the ZVITAMBO Study Group. (2011) Declining HIV prevalence and incidence in perinatal women in Harare, Zimbabwe. Epidemics 3(2). Doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.02.004.


Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group. (2011) More and Better Information to Tackle HIV Epidemics: Towards Improved HIV Incidence Assays. PLoS Medicine 8(7). doi:10.1371/annotation/0931760c-95fa-441c-a797-7b410a4c9326.


Reshma Kassanjee, Alex Welte, Thomas A. McWalter, Sheila M. Keating, Marion Vermeulen, Susan L. Stramer, Michael P. Busch. (2011) Seroconverting Blood Donors as a Resource for Characterising and Optimising Recent Infection Testing Algorithms for Incidence Estimation. PLoS ONE 6(6): e20027. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020027.


Lawn S. D, Harries A. D, Williams B. G, Chaisson R. E, Losina E, De Cock K. M, Wood R. (2011) Antiretroviral therapy and the control of HIV-associated tuberculosis. Will ART do it? International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 15(5). doi: 10.5588/ijtld.10.0483.


Philippe Glaziou, Katherine Floyd, Eline L Korenromp, Charalambos Sismanidis, Ana L Bierrenbach, Brian G Williams, Rifat Atun and Mario Raviglione. (2011) Lives saved by tuberculosis control and prospects for achieving the 2015 global target for reducing tuberculosis mortality. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 89. doi: 10.2471/BLT.11.087510.


Auvert B, Sitta R, Zarca K, Mahiane S. G, Pretorius C, Lissouba P. (2011) The effect of heterogeneity on HIV prevention trials. Clinical Trials 8(2). doi: 10.1177/1740774511398923.


Tiemersma E. W, van der Werf M. J, Borgdorff M. W, Williams B. G, Nagelkerke N. J. (2011) Natural history of tuberculosis: duration and fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients: a systematic review. PLoS One. 6(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017601.


Torr S. J, Chamisa A, Vale G. A, Lehane M. J, Lindh J. M. (2011) Responses of tsetse flies, Glossina morsitans morsitans and Glossina pallidipes, to baits of various size. Medical and Veterinary Entomology 25(4). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2011.00947.x.


Lawn S. D, Ayles H, Egwaga S, Williams B, Mukadi Y. D, Santos Filho E. D, Godfrey-Faussett P, Granich R. M, Harries A. D. (2011) Potential utility of empirical tuberculosis treatment for HIV-infected patients with advanced immunodeficiency in high TB-HIV burden settings. International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 15(3). PMID: 21333094.


Dunbar R, Lawrence K, Verver S, Enarson D. A, Lombard C, Hargrove J, Caldwell J, Beyers N, Barnes J. M. (2011) Accuracy and completeness of recording of confirmed tuberculosis in two South African communities. International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 15(3). PMID: 21333100.


Parekh B. S, Hanson D. L, Hargrove J, Branson B, Green T, Dobbs T, Constantine N, Overbaugh J, McDougal J. S. (2011) Determination of mean recency period for estimation of HIV type 1 Incidence with the BED-capture EIA in persons infected with diverse subtypes. AIDS Research And Human Retroviruses 26(3). doi: 10.1089/aid.2010.0159.


Andrea A. Kim, Timothy Hallett, John Stover, Eleanor Gouws, Joshua Musinguzi, Patrick K. Mureithi, Rebecca Bunnell, John Hargrove, Jonathan Mermin, Reinhard K. Kaiser, Anne Barsigo, and Peter D. Ghys. (2011) Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods. PLoS One 6(3). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017535.


Simon P Johnstone-Robertson, John Hargrove, and Brian G Williams (2011) Antiretroviral therapy initiated soon after HIV diagnosis as standard care: potential to save lives? HIV/AIDS - Research And Palliative Care 3. doi: 10.2147/HIV.S7278.


Biccard B.M., Welte A, Kassanjee R. (2011) Is it possible to decrease the incidence of peri-operative stroke associated with acute peri-operative beta-blocker administration? Anaesthesia 66(2). doi:10.1111/j.1365-2044.2010.06617.x.


Nicolas Bacaër, Carel Pretorius, Bertran Auvert (2010) An Age-Structured Model for the Potential Impact of Generalized Access to Antiretrovirals on the South African HIV Epidemic. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 72(2180). doi:10.1007/s11538-010-9535-2


Gregson S, Gonese E, Hallett TB, Taruberekera N, Hargrove JW, Lopman B, Corbett EL, Dorrington R, Dube S, Dehne K, Mugurungi O. (2010) HIV decline in Zimbabwe due to reductions in risky sex? Evidence from a comprehensive epidemiological review Int J Epidemiol 39(5). doi: 10.1093/ije/dyq055.


Kim AA, McDougal JS, Hargrove J, Rehle T, Pillay-Van Wyk V, Puren A, Ekra A, Borget-Alloue MY, Adje-Toure C, Abdullahi AS, Odawo L, Marum L, Parekh BS. (2010) Evaluating the BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay to Estimate HIV Incidence Among Adults in Three Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 26(10):1051-61. doi: 10.1089/aid.2009.0218.


Corbett EL, Bandason T, Duong T, Dauya E, Makamure B, Churchyard GJ, Williams BG, Munyati SS, Butterworth AE, Mason PR, Mungofa S, Hayes RJ. (2010) Comparison of two active case-finding strategies for community-based diagnosis of symptomatic smear-positive tuberculosis and control of infectious tuberculosis in Harare, Zimbabwe (DETECTB): a cluster-randomised trial. Lancet 376(9748). doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61425-0.


Bärnighausen T., T. A. McWalter, Z. Rosner, M. L. Newell & A. Welte (2010) HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: systematic review and sensitivity analysis. Epidemiology. 21(5):685-97. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181e9e978.


Reuben Granich, Siobhan Crowley, Marco Vitoria, Ying-Ru Lo, Yves Souteyrand, Christopher Dye, Charlie Gilks, Teguest Guerma, Kevin M De Cock, Brian Williams (2010) Highly active antiretroviral treatment as prevention of HIV Journal of the International AIDS Society 13(1). doi:10.1186/1758-2652-13-1.


B?rnighausen T, McWalter T. A, Rosner Z, Newell M. L, Welte A. (2010) HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: systematic review and sensitivity analysis. Epidemiology 21(5). doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181e9e978.


John Hargrove and Jean Humphrey for the ZVITAMBO Study Group (2010) Simplified estimation of the long-term specificity of the BED assay to improve estimates of HIV incidence. AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses 26(9). doi:10.1089/aid.2010.0009.


Williams B. G, Hargrove J. W, Humphrey J. H. (2010) The benefits of early treatment for HIV. AIDS 24(11). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833ac860.


A Welte, T A McWalter, O Laeyendecker, T B Hallett (2010) Using tests for recent infection to estimate incidence: problems and prospects for HIV Euro Surveill. 15(24):pii=19589.


Ferrand R, Lowe S, Whande B, Munaiwa L, Langhaug L, Cowan F, Mugurungi O, Gibb D, Munyati S, Williams B. G, Corbett E. L. (2010) Survey of children accessing HIV services in a high prevalence setting: time for adolescents to count? Bulletin of The World Health Organization 88(6). doi: 10.2471/BLT.09.066126.


Desimpel A, Roelens K, Temmerman M, Delva W, De Boeck F, Goethals J and Maes L. (2010) Advies- en hulpvragen van jongeren in verband met seksualiteit. Tijdschrift Jeugdgezondheidszorg 42(2).


Delva W., Michielsen K, Meulders B, Groeninck S, Wasonga E, Ajwang P, Temmerman M, Vanreusel B. (2010) HIV prevention through sport: the case of the Mathare Youth Sport Association in Kenya. AIDS Care 22(8).


Reuben Granich, Christopher Akolo, Christian Gunneberg, Haileyesus Getahun, Phoebe Williams, and Brian Williams (2010) Prevention of tuberculosis in people living with HIV Clin Infect Dis 50 (Supplement 3): S215-S222. doi: 10.1086/651494


B. Betta, T.F. Randolph, P. Irungu, S.O. Nyamwaro, P. Kitala, J. Gathuma, D. Grace, G. Vale, J. Hargrove, J. McDermott (2010) Field trial of a synthetic tsetse-repellent technology developed for the control of bovine trypanosomosis in Kenya Preventive Veterinary Medicine 97(3–4). doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.09.001


Petra De Koker, Pierre Lefèvre, Francine Matthys, Patrick van der Stuyft, Wim Delva (2010) Barriers to VCT despite 13 years of community-based awareness campaigns in a peri-urban township in northern Limpopo. South African Medical Journal 100(6). doi:10.7196/SAMJ.3941.


Wim Delva, Elodie Yard, Stanley Lüchters, Matthew Chersich, Esther Muigai, Vicky Oyier and Marleen Temmerman (2010) A safe motherhood project in Kenya assessment of antenatal attendance, service provision and implications for PMTCT. Trop. Med. Int. Health 15(5). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2010.02499.x


Wood R, Johnstone-Robertson S, Uys P, Hargrove J, Middelkoop K, Lawn SD, Bekker LG. (2010) Tuberculosis transmission to young children in a South African community: modeling household and community infection risks. Clin Infect Dis. 51(4). doi: 10.1086/655129.


McWalter TA, Welte A. (2010) Relating recent infection prevalence to incidence with a sub-population of assay non-progressors. Math Biol. 60(5):687-710. doi:10.1007/s00285-009-0282-7.


Anthony D Harries, Rony Zachariah, Elizabeth L Corbett, Stephen D Lawn, Ezio T Santos-Filho, Rhehab Chimzizi, MCommH, Mark Harrington, Dermot Maher, Brian G Williams, Prof Kevin M De Cock (2010) The HIV associated tuberculosis epidemic-when will we act? The Lancet 375(9729). doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60409-6


Yves Lafort, Diederike Geelhoed, Luisa Cumba, Carla das Dores Mosse L?zaro, Wim Delva, Stanley Luchters and Marleen Temmerman. (2010) Reproductive health services for populations at high risk of HIV: Performance of a night clinic in Tete province, Mozambique. BMC Health Services Research 10(144). DOI: 10.1186/1472-6963-10-144.


Dye C, Williams B. G. (2010) The population dynamics and control of tuberculosis. Science 328(5980). doi: 10.1126/science.1185449.


Marinda ET, Hargrove J, Preiser W, Slabbert H, van Zyl G, Levin J, Moulton LH, Welte A and Humphrey J. (2010) Significantly Diminished Long-Term Specificity of the BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay Among Patients With HIV-1 With Very Low CD4 Counts and Those on Antiretroviral Therapy J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 53(4). PMID: 20306555.


J. B. Rayaisse, I. Tirados, D. Kaba, S. Y. Dewhirst, J. G. Logan, A. Diarrassouba, E. Salou, M. O. Omolo, P. Solano, M. J. Lehane, J. A. Pickett, G. A. Vale, S. J. Torr, and J. Esterhuizen. (2010) Prospects for the Development of Odour Baits to Control the Tsetse Flies Glossina tachinoides and G. palpalis s.l. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 16(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000632.


Dewan PK, Gupta D, Williams BG, Thakur R, Bachani D, Khera A, Wares DF, Sahu S, Reddy DC, Raizada N, Chauhan LS. (2010) National estimate of HIV seroprevalence among tuberculosis patients in India Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 14(2). PMID: 20074420


Hargrove JW, Humphrey JH; ZVITAMBO Study Group. (2010) Mortality among HIV-positive postpartum women with high CD4 cell counts in Zimbabwe AIDS 24(3). PMID: 20095074


Stanley MF Luchters, Davy Vanden Broeck, Matthew F Chersich, Annalene Nel, Wim Delva, Kishor Mandaliya, Christophe E Depuydt, Patricia Claeys, John-Paul Bogers, Marleen Temmerman (2010) Association of HIV infection with distribution and viral load of HPV types in Kenya a survey with 820 female sex workers. Luchters et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 10(18). doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-18.


Montaner J. S, Lima V. D, Williams B. G. (2010) Evaluating outcomes of the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief in Africa. Annals of International Medicine 152(2). doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-152-2-201001190-00019.


Reuben Granich, Siobhan Crowley, Marco Vitoria, Ying-Ru Lo, Yves Souteyrand, Christopher Dye, Charlie Gilks, Teguest Guerma, Kevin M De Cock, Brian Williams (2010) Cross-sectional HIV incidence surveillence: a benchmarking of approaches for estimating the 'mean duration of recent infection.' Journal of the International AIDS Society 13(1).


Timothy D. Mastro, Andrea A. Kim, Timothy Hallett, Thomas Rehle, Alex Welte, Oliver Laeyendecker, Tom Oluoch, and Jesus M. Garcia-Calleja. (2010) Estimating HIV Incidence in Populations Using Tests for Recent Infection: Issues, Challenges and the Way Forward. Journal of HIV/AIDS Surveillance and Epidemiology 2(1).


Delva W, Vercoutere A, Loua C, Lamah J, Vansteelandt S, De Koker P, Claeys P, Temmerman and Annemans L (2009) Psychological Well-Being And Socio-Economic Hardship Among Aids Orphans And Other Vulnerable Children In Guinea. AIDS Care-Psychological And Socio-Medical Aspects Of AIDS/HIV 21(12). doi: 10.1080/09540120902887235.


Guy R, Gold J, Garcia Calleja J. M, Kim A. A, Parekh B, Busch M, Rehle T, Hargrove J. W, Remis R. S, Kaldor JM. (2009) Accuracy of serological assays for detection of recent infection with HIV and estimation of population incidence: a systematic review. Lancet Infectious Diseases 9(12). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70300-7.


Thomas A. McWalter, and Alex Welte (2009) A Comparison of Biomarker Based Incidence Estimators PLoS ONE 4(10): e7368. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0007368


Brian G. Williams, Alex Welte, Bertran Auvert, and John Hargrove (2009) Consequences of Early Treatment for Individuals at Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Clin Infect Dis. (2009) 49 (7). doi: 10.1086/605598


Mary-Ann Davies, Olivia Keiser, Karl Technau, Brian Eley, Helena Rabie, Gilles van Cutsem, Janet Giddy, Robin Wood, Andrew Boulle, Matthias Egger, Harry Moultrie, (2009) Outcomes of the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme for children: The IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration S Afr Med J 99(10). PMCID: PMC2925142.


Hargrove, John W (2009) BED estimates of HIV incidence must be adjusted AIDS: 23(15). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832f3d8b


Alex Welte, Thomas A. McWalter, and Till B?rnighausen. (2009) Reply to ?Should biomarker estimates of HIV incidence be adjusted??. AIDS 23(15). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832eff59.


Wim Delva, Carel Pretorius, Marleen Temmerman (2009) Is scaling up enough to curb the HIV epidemic in southern Africa? South African Medical Journal 99(9).


Hankins C, Hargrove Jw, Williams Bg, Raddad La, Auvert B, Bollinger L, Dorrington R, Ghani A, Gray R, Hallet T, Kahn Jg, Lohse N, Nagelkerke N, Porco T, Schmid G, Stover J, Weiss H, Welte A, White P, White R. (2009) Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in High HIV Prevalence Settings: What Can Mathematical Modelling Contribute to Informed Decision Making? PLoS Med 6(9): e1000109. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000109.


Morna Cornell, Karl Technau, Lara Fairall, Robin Wood, Harry Moultrie, Gilles van Cutsem, Janet Giddy, Lerato Mohapi, Brian Eley, Patrick Macphail, Hans Prozesky, Helena Rabie, Mary-Ann Davies, Nicola Maxwell, Andrew Boulle (2009) Monitoring the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme, 2003 - 2007: The IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration S Afr Med J. 99(9). PMCID: PMC2864850


Ferrand RA, Corbett EL, Wood R, Hargrove J, Ndhlovu CE, Cowan FM, Gouws E, Williams BG. (2009) AIDS among older children and adolescents in Southern Africa: projecting the time course and magnitude of the epidemic AIDS. 23(15). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833016ce.


Jenny M. Lindh, Steve J. Torr, Glyn A. Vale, and Mike J. Lehane. (2009) Improving the Cost-Effectiveness of Artificial Visual Baits for Controlling the Tsetse Fly Glossina fuscipes fuscipes. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 3(7). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000474.


Alex Welte, Thomas A. McWalter, and Till Bärnighausen (2009) A Simplified Formula for Inferring HIV Incidence from Cross-Sectional Surveys Using a Test for Recent Infection AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 25(1): doi: 10.1089/aid.2008.0150


Pieter W. Uys, Paul D. van Helden and John W. Hargrove (2009) Tuberculosis reinfection rate as a proportion of total infection rate correlates with the logarithm of the incidence rate: a mathematical model. J. R. Soc. Interface 6. doi:10.1098/rsif.2008.0184


Till Bärnighausen , Claudia Wallrauch, Alex Welte, Thomas A. McWalter, Nhlanhla Mbizana, Johannes Viljoen, Natalie Graham, Frank Tanser, Adrian Puren, Marie-Louise Newell (2009) HIV incidence in rural South Africa: comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing. PLoS ONE 3(11): e3640. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0003640


Pretorius C, Bacaer N, Williams B. G, Robin W, Ouifki R. (2009) On the Relationship between Age, Annual Rate of Infection, and Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a South African Township. Clinical Infectious Diseases 48(7). DOI: 10.1086/597357.


Nyabadza Farai, Mukwembi Simon, Rodrigues Bernardo Gabriel. (2009) A tuberculosis model: The case of ?reasonable? and ?unreasonable? infectives. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 388(10). Doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.01.039.


Omolo M. O, Hassanali A, Mpiana S, Esterhuizen J, Lindh J, Lehane M. J, Solano P, Rayaisse J. B, Vale G. A, Torr S. J, Tirados I. (2009) Prospects for developing odour baits to control Glossina fuscipes spp., the major vector of human African trypanosomiasis. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 3(5). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000435.


Pieter W. Uys, Robin Warren, Paul D. van Helden, Megan Murray, and Thomas C. Victor. (2009) Potential of Rapid Diagnosis for Controlling Drug-Susceptible and Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Communities Where Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infections Are Highly Prevalent J Clin Microbiol 47(5). doi: 10.1128/JCM.02289-08


Vale G. A. (2009) Prospects for controlling trypanosomosis. Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research 76(1). PMID: 19967927.


Brian Gerard Williams, David Ginsburg, Julio Montaner, Tienie Stander, Alex Welte (2009) Achieving South Africa's national strategic plan for HIV/AIDS. The Lancet 373(9667). doi/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60547-X.


Tinevimbo Shiri and Alex Welte (2008) Transient antiretroviral therapy selecting for common HIV-1 mutations substantially accelerates the appearance of rare mutations Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 5(25). doi:10.1186/1742-4682-5-25


Williams B. G, Hargrove J. W (2008) The Case For Early Antiretroviral Therapy For HIV/AIDS Quest 4(3).


Bacaër N, Ouifki R, Pretorius C, Wood R, Williams B. (2008) Modelling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township J Math Biol 57(4). doi: 10.1007/s00285-008-0177-z.


F. Nyabadza (2008) On the complexities of modeling HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa Mathematical Modelling And Analysis 13(4). doi:10.3846/1392-6292.2008.13.539-552.


Bertran Auvert , Elliot Marseille, Eline L. Korenromp, James Lloyd-Smith, Remi Sitta, Dirk Taljaard, Carel Pretorius, Brian Williams, James G. Kahn (2008) Estimating the Resources Needed and Savings Anticipated from Roll-Out of Adult Male Circumcision in Sub-Saharan Africa PLoS ONE 3(8): e2679. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0002679


Pheiffer C, Carroll N.M, Beyers N, Donald P, Duncan K, Uys P, and Van Helden P. (2008) Time to detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in BACTEC systems as a viable alternative to colony counting. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 12(7): PMID:18544206


Pieter W Uys, Paul D van Helden, and John W Hargrove (2008) Tuberculosis reinfection rate as a proportion of total infection rate correlates with the logarithm of the incidence rate: a mathematical model J R Soc Interface 6(30). doi: 10.1098/rsif.2008.0184


R. Ouifki, A. Welte, and C. Pretorius (2008) A model of HIV infection with two viral strains and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte response under structured treatment interruptions South African Journal of Science 104(5-6).


Alex Welte (2008) Relating incidence to recent infection prevelance: Application to HIV. South African Journal of Science 104.


Farai Nyabadza (2008) Modelling HIV/AIDS prevention by defense International Journal of Medical, Health, Biomedical, Bioengineering and Pharmaceutical Engineering 2(3).


Nicolas Bacaër, Rachid Ouifki, Carel Pretorius, Robin Wood, Brian Williams (2008) Modeling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township J. Math. Biol. 57(557). doi:10.1007/s00285-008-0177-z.


Torr S. J, Della Torre A, Calzetta M, Costantini C, Vale G. A (2008) Towards a fuller understanding of mosquito behaviour: use of electrocuting grids to compare the odour-orientated responses of Anopheles arabiensis and An. quadriannulatus in the field Medical And Veterinary Entomology 22: 93-108. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2008.00723.x


Rachid Ouifkia, Gareth Witten. (2008) Stability analysis of a model for HIV infection with RTI and three intracellular delays. Biosystems 95(1). Doi: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2008.05.027.


Stephen J. Millen, Pieter W. Uys , John Hargrove, Paul D. van Helden, Brian G. Williams (2008) The effect of diagnostic delays on the drop-out rate and the total delay to diagnosis of tuberculosis PLoS ONE 3(4): e1933. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001933


Stephen J. Millen, Pieter W. Uys , John Hargrove, Paul D. van Helden, Brian G. Williams (2008) The Effect of Diagnostic Delays on the Drop-Out Rate and the Total Delay to Diagnosis of Tuberculosis PLoS ONE 3(4): e1933. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001933


Farai Nyabadza (2008) Modelling the role of prophylaxis in malaria prevention International Journal Of Biological And Medical Sciences 1(1).


Hargrove John W, Humphrey Jean H, Mutasa Kuda, Parekh Bharat S, McDougal J Steve, Ntozini Robert, Chidawanyika Henry, Moulton Lawrence H, Ward Brian, Nathoo Kusum, Iliff Peter J, Kopp Ekkehard (2008) Improved HIV-1 incidence estimates using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay AIDS 22(4). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3282f2a960


Nicolas Bacaera, Rachid Ouifkib (2007) Growth rate and basic reproduction number for population models with a simple periodic factor. Mathematical Biosciences 210(2). doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2007.07.005


Hargrove, J. W, Williams, B.G. (2007) Income inequality and HIV prevalence. Response to: Piot P, Greener R, Russell S Squaring the circle: AIDS, Poverty and Human Development PLoS Medicine Vol. 4, No. 10, e314 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040314


J. H. Humphrey, K. J. Nathoo, J. W. Hargrove, P. J. Iliff, K. E. Mutasa, L. H. Moulton, H. Chidawanyika, L. C. Malaba, L. S. Zijenah, P. Zvandasara, R. Ntozini, C. D. Zunguza, B. J. Ward, and the ZVITAMBO Study Group (2007) HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevelance and associated risk factors among postnatal woman in Harare Epidemiol. Infect. 135. doi:10.1017/S0950268806007709


Tavengwa NV, Piwoz EG, Iliff PJ, Moulton LH, Zunguza CD, Nathoo KJ, Hargrove JW; ZVITAMBO Study Group, Humphrey JH. (2007) Adoption of safer infant feeding and postpartum sexual practices and their relationship to maternal HIV status and risk of acquiring HIV in Zimbabwe. Trop Med Int Health 12(1). doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01758.x


Azam JM, Pang X, Are EB, Pulliam JRC, Ferrari MJ () Models and modelling practices for assessing the impact of outbreak response interventions to human vaccine-preventable diseases (1970-2019) - A systematic review doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.27.22275642 Medrxiv Preprint


DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis