Prof John Hargrove, PhD

Senior Research Fellow

Research theme: Combatting Infections of National Priority

John was appointed as SACEMA director in early 2006 and remained director until June 2010, when he handed over stewardship of SACEMA to incoming director Alex Welte. John worked for more than 30 years in the field of tsetse fly biology and control, applying mathematical analytical and modelling techniques in the field of physiology, behaviour and population dynamics.

Recent publications

Vale G, Hargrove JW, Torr SJ (2022) Identification of the area sampled by traps: a modelling study with tsetse doi.org/10.1101/2022.10.24.513453 Preprint

Hargrove JW, Vale G (2022) Stalled malaria control; root causes and possible remedies doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.09.22277454 Preprint

Hargrove JW, Vale GA (2021) Negative density-dependent dispersal in tsetse (Glossina spp): red flag or red herring? Medical and Veterinary Entomology doi.org/10.1111/mve.12466

Are EB, Hargrove JW, Dushoff J (2021) Does Counting Different Life Stages Impact Estimates for Extinction Probabilities for Tsetse (Glossina spp)? Bulletin of Mathematical Biology doi.org/10.1007/s11538-021-00924-1

Hargrove JW, Van Sickle J, Vale GA, Lucas ER (2021) Negative density-dependent dispersal in tsetse (Glossina spp): An artefact of inappropriate analysis PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009026

Lee, R.H., G.A. Vale, A.M.G. Barreaux, N.C. Ellstrand, & J.W. Hargrove, & S. English (2020) Big Baby, Little Mother: Tsetse Flies Are Exceptions to the Juvenile Small Size Principle. BioEssays :2000049 doi: 10.1002/bies.202000049

Lord, J.L., R. S. Lea, F. K. Allan, M. Byamungu, D.R. Hall, J. Lingley, F. Mramba, E. Paxton, G A. Vale, J. W. Hargrove, L. J. Morrison, S. J. Torr, & H. K. Auty (2020) Assessing the effect of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse abundance and trypanosome transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface in Serengeti, Tanzania. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14(8): e0008288. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008288

Are, E.B, & J. Hargrove (2020) Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp) PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14(5): e0007854 doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854

Are, E.B, & J. Hargrove (2020) Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.) PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14(5): e0007769 doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769

S. English, A. M.G. Barreaux, M. B. Bonsall, J. W. Hargrove, M.J. Keeling, K. S. Rock, & Glyn A. Vale (2020) Incorporating Vector Ecology and Life History into Disease Transmission Models: Insights from Tsetse (Glossina spp.) Population Biology of Vector-Borne Diseases 175-188 doi: 10.1093/oso/9780198841661.003.0010

Hargrove, J.W (2020) A model for the relationship between wing fray and chronological and ovarian ages in tsetse (Glossina spp). Medical and Veterinary Entomology 34(3): 251-263 doi: 10.1111/mve.12439

Hargrove, J.W., & G.A. Vale (2020) Models for the rates of pupal development, fat consumption and mortality in tsetse (Glossina spp). Bulletin of Entomological Research 110(1) : 44-56 doi: 10.1017/S0007485319000233

Barclay, H.J., J.W. Hargrove, & P. Van Den Driessche (2020) Modelling optimal timing and frequency of insecticide sprays for eradication or knockdown of closed populations of tsetse flies Glossina spp. (Diptera: Glossinidae) Medical and Veterinary Entomology 34: 151-163 doi: 10.1111/mve.12430

Are, E.B, & J. Hargrove (2019) Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.) PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14(5): e0007769. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007769

Are, E.B, & J. Hargrove (2019) Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp) PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14(5): e0007854. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854

Barclay, H.J., J.W. Hargrove, & P. Van Den Driessche (2019) Estimating tsetse fertility: daily averaging versus periodic larviposition. Medical and Veterinary Entomology 34(1): 27-33 doi: 10.1111/mve.12399

Gonese, E., P.H. Kilmarx, C. van Schalkwyk, E. Grebe, K. Mutasa, R. Ntozini, B. Parekh, T. Dobbs, Y.D. Pottinger, S. Masciotra, M. Owen, J.B. Nachega, G. van Zyl, & J.W. Hargrove (2019) Evaluation of the Performance of Three Biomarker Assays for Recent HIV Infection Using a Well-Characterized HIV-1 Subtype C Incidence Cohort. AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses 35(7):615-627 doi: 10.1089/aid.2019.0033

Hargrove, J.W., & G.A. Vale (2019) Models for the rates of pupal development, fat consumption and mortality in tsetse (Glossina spp). Bulletin of Entomological Research :1-13 doi:10.1017/S0007485319000233

Barclay, H.J., J.W. Hargrove, R. Steacy & P. van den Driessche (2019) Modelling optimal timing and frequency of insecticide sprays for knockdown in preparation for other control measures. International Journal of Pest Management 65(2):114-129 doi: org/10.1080/09670874.2018.1475690

Kajunguri, D., E.B. Are, & J.W. Hargrove (2019) Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction.for populations of tsetse. (Glossina spp ) PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 13(4): e0006973 doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006973

Hargrove, J.W., S English, S.J. Torr, J. Lord, R.L Haines, C. van Schalkwyk, J. Patterson, & G.Vale (2019) Wing length and host location in tsetse (Glossina spp.): implications for control using stationary baits Parasites & Vectors 12(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s13071-018-3274-x.

Lord, J.S., J.W. Hargrove, S.J. Torr, & G.A. Vale (2018) vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study. PLoS medicine 15(10):e1002675 doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002675

Hargrove, J., R. Steacy, & P. Van Den Driessche (2018) Modelling optimal timing and frequency of insecticide sprays for knock down in preparation for other control measures. International Journal of Pest Management 65(2):114-129 doi: 10.1080/09670874.2018.1475690

Hargrove, J., M.O. Muzari, & S. English (2018) How maternal investment varies with environmental factors and the age and physiological state of wild tsetse Glossina pallidipes and Glossina morsitans morisitans. Royal Society Open Science 5(171739);12. doi: 10.1098/rsos.171739

Lord, J.S., S.J. Torr, H. Auty, P.M. Brock, M. Byamungu, J. Hargrove, L.J. Morrison, F. Mramba, G.A. Vale, & M.C. Stanton. (2018) Geostatistical models using remotely-sensed data predict savanna tsetse. decline across the interface between protected and unprotected areas in Serengeti, Tanzania. Journal of Applied Ecology 55 (4):1997-2007. doi: 10.1111/1365- 2664.13091

Ackley, S.F., & J. Hargrove. (2017) A dynamic model for estimating adult female mortality from ovarian dissection data for the tsetse fly Glossina pallidipes Austen sampled in Zimbabwe. PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 11(8):e0005813, 20. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005813

Lord, J.S., Z. Mthombothi, V.K. Lagat, F. Atuhaire, & J.W. Hargrove (2017) Host-seeking efficiency can explain population dynamics of the tsetse fly Glossina morsitans morsitans in response to host density decline. PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 11(7): e0005730. doi: 10.1371/ journal.pntd.0005730

Hargrove, J.W., C. van Schalkwyk, J.H. Humphrey, K. Mutasa, R. Ntozini, S.M. Owen, S. Masciotra, B.S. Parekh, Y.T. Duong, T. Dobbs, P.H. Kilmarx, & E. Gonese. (2017) Heightened HIV antibody responses in postpartum women as exemplified by recent infection assays: implications for incidence estimates. AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses 33(9). doi: 10.1089/aid.2016.0319

Gonese, E., A. Mushavi, M. Mungati, M. Mhangara, J. Dzangare, O. Mugurungi, J. Dee, P.H. Kilmarx, G. Shambira, M.T. Tshimanga, & J. Hargrove (2016) Is Zimbabwe ready to transition from anonymous unlinked sero-surveillance to using prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) program data for HIV surveillance?: results of PMTCT utility study (2012). BMC Infectious Diseases 16:97. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1425-2

Glyn A.V., J.W. Hargrove, N.A. Cullis, A. Chamisa, S.J. Torr. (2015) Efficacy of Electrocuting Devices to Catch Tsetse Flies (Glossinidae) and Other Diptera PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 9(10):e0004169. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004169.

Hargrove, J.W., M.O. Muzari, & O.Mutizwa. (2015) Nutritional levels of pregnant and postpartum tsetse Glossina pallidipes Austen captured in artificial warthog burrows in the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe. Physiological Entomology 40(2). Doi: 10.1111/phen.12098

Hargrove, J.W., & S.F. Ackley. (2015) Mortality estimates from ovarian age distributions of the tsetse fly Glossina pallidipes Austen sampled in Zimbabwe suggest the need for new analytical approaches. Bulletin of Entomological Research 105(3):294-304. doi: 10.1017/S0007485315000073

Vale, G.A., J.W. Hargrove, M.J. Lehane, P. Solano, & S.J. Torr (2015) Optimal strategies for controlling riverine tsetse flies using targets: a modelling study. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 9(3):e0003615. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003615

John W. Hargrove , M. Odwell Muzari. (2015) Artificial Warthog Burrows Used to Sample Adult and Immature Tsetse (Glossina spp) in the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 9(3). Doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003565.

Vale G. A, Hargrove J. W, Chamisa A, Grant I. F, Torr S. J. (2015) Pyrethroid treatment of cattle for tsetse control: reducing its impact on dung fauna. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 9(2). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003560.

Glyn A. Vale, John W. Hargrove, Philippe Solano, Fabrice Courtin, Jean-Baptiste Rayaisse, Michael J. Lehane, Johan Esterhuizen, Inaki Tirados, Stephen J. Torr. (2014) Explaining the Host-Finding Behavior of Blood-Sucking Insects: Computerized Simulation of the Effects of Habitat Geometry on Tsetse Fly Movement. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 8(6): e2901. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002901

Kajunguri D, Hargrove J. W, Ouifki R, Mugisha J. Y, Coleman P. G, Welburn S. C. (2014) Modelling the use of insecticide-treated cattle to control tsetse and Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in a multi-host population. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 76(3). doi: 10.1007/s11538-014-9938-6.

Hargrove J. W. (2013) An example from the world of tsetse flies. Mathematical Biosciences And Engineering 10(3). PMID: 23906144.

Vale G. A, Hargrove J. W, Chamisa A, Hall D. R, Mangwiro C, Torr S. J. (2013) Factors affecting the propensity of tsetse flies to enter houses and attack humans inside: increased risk of sleeping sickness in warmer climates. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 7(4). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002193.

Hargrove J, Eastwood H, Mahiane G, van Schalkwyk C. (2012) How should we best estimate the mean recency duration for the BED method? PLoS One 7(11). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049661.

Hargrove J. W. (2012) Age-specific changes in sperm levels among female tsetse (Glossina spp.) with a model for the time course of insemination. Physiological Entomology 37(3). DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3032.2012.00845.x.

Hargrove J. W, Ouifki R, Kajunguri D, Vale G. A, Torr S. J. (2012) Modeling the control of trypanosomiasis using trypanocides or insecticide-treated livestock. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 6(5). doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001615.

Hargrove J., C. van Schalkwyk & H. Eastwood (2012) BED Estimates of HIV Incidence: Resolving the Differences, Making Things Simpler. PLoS One. 7(1): e29736. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0029736.

Hargrove J. W, Ouifki R, Ameh JE. (2011) A general model for mortality in adult tsetse (Glossina spp.). Medical And Veterinary Entomology 25(4). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2011.00953.x.

Delva W, Verguet S, Hargrove J, Williams B, Sheneberger R, Stander T, Welte A. (2011) Treatment-centred prevention: an integrated biomedical and social approach to HIV prevention. AIDS 25(11). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283488503.

Williams B. G, Wood R, Dukay V, Delva W, Ginsburg D, Hargrove J, Stander M, Sheneberger R, Montaner J, Welte A. (2011) Treatment as prevention: preparing the way. Journal of the International Aids Society 14(1). doi: 10.1186/1758-2652-14-S1-S6.

Alex Welte, John Hargrove, Wim Delva, Brian Williams, Tienie Stander (2011) How different are the costs and consequences of delayed versus immediate HIV treatment? South African Medical Journal 101(6).

Uys P, Marais B. J, Johnstone-Robertson S, Hargrove J, Wood R. (2011) Transmission elasticity in communities hyperendemic for tuberculosis. Clinical Infectious Diseases 52(12). doi: 10.1093/cid/cir229.

John W. Hargrove, Jean H. Humphrey, Agnes Mahomva, Brian G. Williams, Henry Chidawanyika, Kuda Mutasa, Edmore Marinda, Michael T. Mbizvo, Kusum J. Nathoo, Peter J. Iliff, Owen Mugurungib, the ZVITAMBO Study Group. (2011) Declining HIV prevalence and incidence in perinatal women in Harare, Zimbabwe. Epidemics 3(2). Doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.02.004.

Dunbar R, Lawrence K, Verver S, Enarson D. A, Lombard C, Hargrove J, Caldwell J, Beyers N, Barnes J. M. (2011) Accuracy and completeness of recording of confirmed tuberculosis in two South African communities. International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 15(3). PMID: 21333100.

Parekh B. S, Hanson D. L, Hargrove J, Branson B, Green T, Dobbs T, Constantine N, Overbaugh J, McDougal J. S. (2011) Determination of mean recency period for estimation of HIV type 1 Incidence with the BED-capture EIA in persons infected with diverse subtypes. AIDS Research And Human Retroviruses 26(3). doi: 10.1089/aid.2010.0159.

Andrea A. Kim, Timothy Hallett, John Stover, Eleanor Gouws, Joshua Musinguzi, Patrick K. Mureithi, Rebecca Bunnell, John Hargrove, Jonathan Mermin, Reinhard K. Kaiser, Anne Barsigo, and Peter D. Ghys. (2011) Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods. PLoS One 6(3). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017535.

Simon P Johnstone-Robertson, John Hargrove, and Brian G Williams (2011) Antiretroviral therapy initiated soon after HIV diagnosis as standard care: potential to save lives? HIV/AIDS - Research And Palliative Care 3. doi: 10.2147/HIV.S7278.

Gregson S, Gonese E, Hallett TB, Taruberekera N, Hargrove JW, Lopman B, Corbett EL, Dorrington R, Dube S, Dehne K, Mugurungi O. (2010) HIV decline in Zimbabwe due to reductions in risky sex? Evidence from a comprehensive epidemiological review Int J Epidemiol 39(5). doi: 10.1093/ije/dyq055.

Kim AA, McDougal JS, Hargrove J, Rehle T, Pillay-Van Wyk V, Puren A, Ekra A, Borget-Alloue MY, Adje-Toure C, Abdullahi AS, Odawo L, Marum L, Parekh BS. (2010) Evaluating the BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay to Estimate HIV Incidence Among Adults in Three Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 26(10):1051-61. doi: 10.1089/aid.2009.0218.

John Hargrove and Jean Humphrey for the ZVITAMBO Study Group (2010) Simplified estimation of the long-term specificity of the BED assay to improve estimates of HIV incidence. AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses 26(9). doi:10.1089/aid.2010.0009.

Williams B. G, Hargrove J. W, Humphrey J. H. (2010) The benefits of early treatment for HIV. AIDS 24(11). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833ac860.

B. Betta, T.F. Randolph, P. Irungu, S.O. Nyamwaro, P. Kitala, J. Gathuma, D. Grace, G. Vale, J. Hargrove, J. McDermott (2010) Field trial of a synthetic tsetse-repellent technology developed for the control of bovine trypanosomosis in Kenya Preventive Veterinary Medicine 97(3–4). doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.09.001

Wood R, Johnstone-Robertson S, Uys P, Hargrove J, Middelkoop K, Lawn SD, Bekker LG. (2010) Tuberculosis transmission to young children in a South African community: modeling household and community infection risks. Clin Infect Dis. 51(4). doi: 10.1086/655129.

Marinda ET, Hargrove J, Preiser W, Slabbert H, van Zyl G, Levin J, Moulton LH, Welte A and Humphrey J. (2010) Significantly Diminished Long-Term Specificity of the BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay Among Patients With HIV-1 With Very Low CD4 Counts and Those on Antiretroviral Therapy J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 53(4). PMID: 20306555.

Hargrove JW, Humphrey JH; ZVITAMBO Study Group. (2010) Mortality among HIV-positive postpartum women with high CD4 cell counts in Zimbabwe AIDS 24(3). PMID: 20095074

Guy R, Gold J, Garcia Calleja J. M, Kim A. A, Parekh B, Busch M, Rehle T, Hargrove J. W, Remis R. S, Kaldor JM. (2009) Accuracy of serological assays for detection of recent infection with HIV and estimation of population incidence: a systematic review. Lancet Infectious Diseases 9(12). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70300-7.

Brian G. Williams, Alex Welte, Bertran Auvert, and John Hargrove (2009) Consequences of Early Treatment for Individuals at Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Clin Infect Dis. (2009) 49 (7). doi: 10.1086/605598

Hargrove, John W (2009) BED estimates of HIV incidence must be adjusted AIDS: 23(15). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832f3d8b

Hankins C, Hargrove Jw, Williams Bg, Raddad La, Auvert B, Bollinger L, Dorrington R, Ghani A, Gray R, Hallet T, Kahn Jg, Lohse N, Nagelkerke N, Porco T, Schmid G, Stover J, Weiss H, Welte A, White P, White R. (2009) Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in High HIV Prevalence Settings: What Can Mathematical Modelling Contribute to Informed Decision Making? PLoS Med 6(9): e1000109. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000109.

Ferrand RA, Corbett EL, Wood R, Hargrove J, Ndhlovu CE, Cowan FM, Gouws E, Williams BG. (2009) AIDS among older children and adolescents in Southern Africa: projecting the time course and magnitude of the epidemic AIDS. 23(15). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833016ce.

Pieter W. Uys, Paul D. van Helden and John W. Hargrove (2009) Tuberculosis reinfection rate as a proportion of total infection rate correlates with the logarithm of the incidence rate: a mathematical model. J. R. Soc. Interface 6. doi:10.1098/rsif.2008.0184

Williams B. G, Hargrove J. W (2008) The Case For Early Antiretroviral Therapy For HIV/AIDS Quest 4(3).

Pieter W Uys, Paul D van Helden, and John W Hargrove (2008) Tuberculosis reinfection rate as a proportion of total infection rate correlates with the logarithm of the incidence rate: a mathematical model J R Soc Interface 6(30). doi: 10.1098/rsif.2008.0184

Stephen J. Millen, Pieter W. Uys , John Hargrove, Paul D. van Helden, Brian G. Williams (2008) The effect of diagnostic delays on the drop-out rate and the total delay to diagnosis of tuberculosis PLoS ONE 3(4): e1933. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001933

Stephen J. Millen, Pieter W. Uys , John Hargrove, Paul D. van Helden, Brian G. Williams (2008) The Effect of Diagnostic Delays on the Drop-Out Rate and the Total Delay to Diagnosis of Tuberculosis PLoS ONE 3(4): e1933. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001933

Hargrove John W, Humphrey Jean H, Mutasa Kuda, Parekh Bharat S, McDougal J Steve, Ntozini Robert, Chidawanyika Henry, Moulton Lawrence H, Ward Brian, Nathoo Kusum, Iliff Peter J, Kopp Ekkehard (2008) Improved HIV-1 incidence estimates using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay AIDS 22(4). doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3282f2a960

Hargrove, J. W, Williams, B.G. (2007) Income inequality and HIV prevalence. Response to: Piot P, Greener R, Russell S Squaring the circle: AIDS, Poverty and Human Development PLoS Medicine Vol. 4, No. 10, e314 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040314

J. H. Humphrey, K. J. Nathoo, J. W. Hargrove, P. J. Iliff, K. E. Mutasa, L. H. Moulton, H. Chidawanyika, L. C. Malaba, L. S. Zijenah, P. Zvandasara, R. Ntozini, C. D. Zunguza, B. J. Ward, and the ZVITAMBO Study Group (2007) HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevelance and associated risk factors among postnatal woman in Harare Epidemiol. Infect. 135. doi:10.1017/S0950268806007709

Tavengwa NV, Piwoz EG, Iliff PJ, Moulton LH, Zunguza CD, Nathoo KJ, Hargrove JW; ZVITAMBO Study Group, Humphrey JH. (2007) Adoption of safer infant feeding and postpartum sexual practices and their relationship to maternal HIV status and risk of acquiring HIV in Zimbabwe. Trop Med Int Health 12(1). doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01758.x

DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis