Appropriate Complexity Modeling of Zoonotic Disease: Anthrax, Ebola and Zika.

Wayne M Getz
Department ESPM, University of California at Berkeley, USA
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
wgetz@berkeley.edu

Speaker: Wayne M Getz

Title: Appropriate Complexity Modeling of Zoonotic Disease: Anthrax, Ebola and Zika

Abstract: The Appropriate Complexity Method (ACME) provides an approach to modeling complex biological systems at an appropriate scale and level of resolution. ACME is guided by the principles of systematic evaluation of the attributes that comprise computational and representational detail, iterative adjustment of models based on pattern-oriented model evaluation strategies, and the use of appropriate datasets to build conceptual models and formulate predictions. In the context of zoonotic disease, I will discuss the ACME method at three scales of modeling and provide examples of each. These scales are: 1. development of tactical models for managing ebola and measles; 2. modeling the links among seasonal outbreaks of anthrax in the plains herbivores in Etosha (zebra, springbok, elephants); 3. predicting the long-term distribution and prevalence of Zika under global change.

Brief Biography: Wayne Getz has a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics at Wits and a D.Sc. from UCT. He has been an Honorary Professor at the Mammal Research Institute in Pretoria, and is an Honorary Professor in the School of Mathematical Sciences at UZKN. He has been on the faculty at UC Berkeley since 1979, a past Chancellor’s Professor, and the Starker-Leopold Professor of Wildlife Ecology. He has coauthored a research monograph on Population Harvesting, a textbook on Calculus in the Life Sciences, and has around 300 peer-reviewed research publications. He is one of three founders of the SACEMA Center of Excellence at Stellenbosch University.

DATE: Friday, 14 October 2016

VENUE: SACEMA Boardroom, 19 Jonkershoek Road, Stellenbosch

TIME: 12h00 – 13h00

Light refreshments are served after the Seminar.

Please RSVP before 12h00 on the 11 October 2016.